Research Projects

Do transaction fees make prices less informative? Evidence from Polymarket

Honors thesis, advised by Rob Hicks · Work in progress

Whether higher trading costs make prices less informative, and whether they do so by changing who trades. Studies of transaction taxes in equity markets can observe neither an asset's fundamental value nor, usually, individual traders. Polymarket's short-dated cryptocurrency contracts offer both: each is effectively a binary option on a spot price, so its fair value can be computed in real time, and every fill is recorded at the wallet level on a public blockchain. I use a March 2026 change in Polymarket's taker-fee schedule, whose size varies with the contract's price, to estimate how trading costs affect volume, the share of trading by skilled wallets, and price accuracy against a spot-implied benchmark.

Empirically Assessing the Effect of the Arrival of New Technology on Incumbent Upgrades in the Fixed Broadband Market

Yong Paek, Yongjoon Park, Ellie Price, Ethan Robertson, and Paroma Sanyal · Submitted to TPRC 2026 · Draft of September 2026

Whether an incumbent cable operator is more likely to undertake a discrete network upgrade when fiber and fixed-wireless rivals enter, and whether that response depends on the entrant's technology and on the local market. Using eight semiannual vintages of the FCC's Broadband Data Collection (June 2022–December 2025), we observe whether Comcast reports symmetric-gigabit service — a proxy for DOCSIS 4.0 — across 13,499 census tracts in six states. Rival exposure is measured at Comcast's own serviceable locations and held fixed before DOCSIS 4.0 capability first appears; each state is estimated separately with tract and county-by-vintage fixed effects.

Macro Sensitivity Analysis

Fama-MacBeth two-pass regression estimating the sensitivity of 316 U.S. financial and banking firms to macroeconomic factors. Implemented in R.

Land Finance in China

A comprehensive analysis of how the Chinese land finance system shapes the real estate market and potential future changes. This research project examines the intricate relationship between local government financing, land sales, and real estate development in China.

Data Analytics Projects

Bayern Munich Managerial Regimes

Bai-Perron structural break tests applied to FC Bayern Munich match data to identify regime changes across managerial tenures. Write-up in progress.

Applying the Elo System to Soccer

Development of a predictive model that achieves 88% accuracy in forecasting match outcomes using the Elo rating system. This project demonstrates expertise in sports analytics and predictive modeling.

Algorithmic Trading Strategy

Development and optimization of the Donchian Channel Breakout Trading Strategy for the Ethereum Market (ETHUSDT).

Monte Carlo Simulation of the 2024/25 UCL Knockout Stage

Forecasting UEFA Champions League outcomes and developing an optimal betting strategy through Monte Carlo simulation and Elo ratings.

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